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CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF NONRECIPROCAL FRAMEWORKS IN GEOPOLITICAL 

SHIFTS AND THE PROSPECTS OF AFRICAN EXPORTS: THE CASE OF THE 

AFRICAN GROWTH AND OPPORTUNITY ACT (AGOA) 
 

 

Sampson Edodi 

PhD Candidate, Department of Political Science and International Relations,  

University of Abuja 

sedodi@yahoo.com,  

& 

Musa Ibori 

Professor, Department of Political Science and International Relations, 

University of Abuja 
 

 

ABSTRACT  

 

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) has played a crucial role in enhancing market 

access for sub-Saharan African (SSA) exports to the United States through a nonreciprocal trade 

framework. However, the shift toward a transactional trade model raises concerns about the future 

of African exports. This study examines the impact of AGOA’s expiration on SSA economies, 

particularly the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), using customs union 

theory and world-systems theory as analytical lenses.  The research adopts an exploratory 

approach, analyzing trade data and policy trends to assess how reciprocal trade frameworks may 

shape export prospects. Findings indicate that while AGOA facilitated export diversification and 

job creation, its expiration exposes African economies to heightened competition, potential trade 

diversion, and structural vulnerabilities. The dominance of raw material exports over value-added 

goods remains a key challenge. Furthermore, inadequate infrastructure and limited industrial 

capacity hinder the ability of SSA countries to compete in a reciprocal trade system.  To mitigate 

these risks, the study recommends strengthening regional trade agreements such as the African 

Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), enhancing value addition in exports, and 

negotiating favorable bilateral trade agreements. Additionally, investments in infrastructure and 

industrial development are critical to ensuring sustainable export growth.  In conclusion, while 

AGOA’s expiration presents challenges, it also offers an opportunity for African nations to 

redefine their trade strategies. By fostering regional integration and economic diversification, SSA 

countries can enhance their resilience in the evolving global trade landscape.   

 

Keywords: Exports, import substitution, AGOA, market access, African growth, ECOWAS 

 

INTRODUCTION  

The global geopolitical landscape is undergoing significant transformation, with profound 

implications for international political economy, development studies, and international relations, 

particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. As economies grow and expand their influence, nations must 

develop their export sectors and pursue industrialization to enable businesses to compete globally 

and capitalize on emerging opportunities. However, this traditional approach is increasingly giving 

way to the strategic use of tariffs as a means to elevate national economies. While not a novel 

concept, this strategy has historically contributed to the prosperity of countries like the United 

mailto:sedodi@yahoo.com


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States. The contemporary shift, however, emphasizes reciprocity in cross-border trade.  A notable 

example of this shift occurred under President Donald Trump, whose international trade policy has 

disrupted the status quo by introducing a transactional approach to trade. This shift redefined trade 

and international relations through a model in which reciprocity dictates economic engagements. 

While Moseley (2018) argues that transactionalism is ineffective, Toosi (2019) and Gvosdev 

(2019) contend that it has evolved from mere rhetoric into a defining principle of contemporary 

global trade, which is now a reality.   

One key policy affected by these changes is the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), 

established in 2002 as a nonreciprocal program that grants duty-free access to U.S. markets for 

eligible exports from qualifying sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Since its inception in 2000, 

AGOA has been central to U.S.-Africa economic relations and remains a cornerstone of America’s 

commercial engagement with the region (Lighthizer, 2020). For instance, in 2024, Nigeria’s 

exports to the U.S. exceeded $5 billion, largely benefiting from tariff-free access under AGOA. In 

contrast, Nigeria’s imports from the U.S. amounted to over $4 billion, with tariffs ranging from 

5% to 35%.  Recently, Donald Trump announced the introduction of a reciprocal trade system, 

which is expected to impact Nigeria’s exports – as well as those of other eligible SSA countries – 

to the U.S. market due to newly imposed reciprocal tariffs. This policy shift signals the potential 

expiration of AGOA and raises critical questions about the future of African exports under a 

reciprocal trade framework.   

This paper critically examines the implications of the transition from a nonreciprocal trade 

framework to a reciprocal one and explores its potential impact on African exports. Specifically, 

it seeks to address the question: How will a reciprocal trade framework shape the prospects of 

African exports? To analyze this issue, the study adopts an exploratory approach, using the 

Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) as a case study applying custom union 

and the world-systems theory as its theoretical framework. Given the rapidly evolving geopolitical 

landscape, this research aims to provide policy recommendations to help position the region 

advantageously within the emerging transactional model of international relations.   

Theoretical Framework 

This study is grounded in customs union theory and the world system theory. The customs union 

theory, developed by Jacob Viner (1950), examines the economic impact of trade agreements that 

eliminate internal tariffs among member states while maintaining a common external tariff against 

non-members. This framework helps analyze the implications of AGOA's nonreciprocal nature 

and the potential shift toward a reciprocal trade arrangement.  A central tenet of customs union 

theory is the distinction between trade creation and trade diversion. Trade creation occurs when a 

trade agreement enables more efficient production within member states, leading to increased 

economic welfare. In contrast, trade diversion happens when preferential trade policies shift 

imports from a more efficient global producer to a less efficient member country due to tariff 

preferences. AGOA, as a nonreciprocal trade preference program allowed African exporters to 

expand their access to the U.S. market without facing competitive pressures from American 

products entering their domestic markets tariff-free. As a result, AGOA facilitated trade creation 

by enabling West African countries to export goods, particularly crude oil, apparel, and 



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agricultural products, at preferential rates.  However, with the shift toward reciprocal trade 

frameworks, there is a potential risk of trade diversion. If AGOA expires and a new system requires 

SSA countries to lower tariffs on U.S. goods in exchange for market access, African producers 

might struggle to compete with highly subsidized American products. This shift could reduce the 

competitive advantage enjoyed by African exporters under AGOA, thereby affecting the prospects 

of African exports. 

Furthermore, this study also draws on world-systems theory (Wallerstein, 2011), which provides 

a broader geopolitical perspective on AGOA’s implications. World-systems theory classifies the 

global economy into core, semi-periphery, and periphery nations, with core countries (such as the 

United States) dominating global trade and finance, while peripheral economies (including most 

of sub-Saharan Africa) supply raw materials and low-value goods.  Under AGOA, African 

countries operated within a peripheral economic structure, primarily exporting raw materials and 

low-processed goods to the U.S. while relying on imports of higher-value manufactured goods. 

The expiration of AGOA and the transition toward transactionalism in trade, where reciprocity 

dictates market access, raises concerns about whether SSA countries can negotiate favourable 

terms within a system historically dominated by core economies. Hence, the potential for increased 

tariffs on African exports could exacerbate existing inequalities and limit SSA’s ability to move 

toward semi-periphery status, where industrialization and economic diversification could thrive.   

In integrating customs union theory and world-systems theory, this study provides a framework 

for understanding AGOA’s role in shaping U.S.-Africa trade relations and the potential 

consequences of its expiration on African exports. The shift toward reciprocity and 

transactionalism in trade presents both opportunities and challenges for West African economies, 

requiring strategic policy responses to ensure sustainable export growth and regional economic 

integration.  In addition, customs union theory suggests that regional economic blocs like 

ECOWAS can serve as a buffer against trade dependency on external partners; this study argues 

that in strengthening intra-African trade through the African Continental Free Trade Agreement 

(AfCFTA), ECOWAS countries could reduce reliance on AGOA-type arrangements and foster 

economic self-sufficiency. However, the transition to a reciprocal trade system poses a challenge, 

without AGOA, SSA countries may need to negotiate bilateral trade agreements with the U.S., 

potentially weakening regional economic unity and undermining export potentials to the U.S. 

market.  

 

BRIEF OF WEST AFRICAN IMPORT AND EXPORTING PERSPECTIVE 

West Africa, an area in western Africa, is renowned for its many cultures, rich history, and 

important contributions to African heritage. The region is characterized by a variety of landscapes, 

ranging from lush tropical rainforests to arid savannas (Adegbeye et al 2024; Bönnen et al 2021). 

Throughout history, West Africa has been home to several powerful and influential empires, such 

as the Ghana Empire, Mali Empire, and Songhai Empire. These empires were centres of trade, 

learning, and cultural exchange, leaving a lasting impact on the region's identity. The West African 

regional bloc, ECOWAS, has formulated trade policies aimed at enhancing exports to its member 

states and the global market. Imports are viewed as complementary to the export strategy, with a 



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focus on enhancing local value and fuel exports from extractive industries dominate transactions 

constituting 75% of exports, primarily sourced from Nigeria (73%) (ECOTIS, 2024). Other 

significant export products include cocoa, precious stones, cotton, edible fruit, rubber, plastics, 

wood products, and fish, collectively forming the major share of ECOWAS exports. Europe 

accounts for approximately 28% of ECOWAS exports, with the European Union contributing 

23%. The Americas constitute 40%, with the Free Trade Association of North America (NAFTA) 

making up 34%, including the US, Canada, and Mexico. The development of South-South trade 

has led to a notable increase in exports to Asian countries and Oceania, capturing 16%. Nigeria 

and Ivory Coast dominate these exports, representing 87% of transactions, with Nigeria 

contributing 77% and Côte d’Ivoire 10%. Ghana and Senegal follow, contributing 4% and 2%, 

respectively, while Mali and five other countries each account for 1% of regional exports. 

Over the years, China has become a prominent trade partner for many West African nations. The 

relationship often involves the export of raw materials, such as oil, minerals, and agricultural 

products, to meet China's growing industrial and consumer demands (Shinn 2023; Abegunrin & 

Manyeruke 2020; Hou, Fu, & Mohnen 2022). Also, several West African countries maintain strong 

trade ties with European Union (EU) nations. The EU is a major destination for West African 

exports, including agricultural products, minerals, and oil. Individual countries within the EU, such 

as France, Germany, and the Netherlands, are significant trading partners (Adam, et al. 2020; 

Krapohl& Van Huut 2020). Similarly, India has been a growing trade partner for West African 

nations. The relationship involves the export of various commodities, including oil, minerals, and 

agricultural products. India's increasing demand for raw materials contributes to the economic ties 

between the regions (Okoro, Ujunwa et al. 2020). However, the United States is also an important 

export partner for some West African countries. The ECOWAS and the United States have taken 

steps to develop trade relations frameworks. Among the various frameworks, our case study in this 

paper is the AGOA. AGOA has facilitated trade between the US and eligible African countries, 

providing preferential access to the US market for certain goods.  

AGOA, which encourages sub-Saharan African eligible exports with tariff-free access to the US 

markets, has now expired. The EU has similar frameworks, and there are expectations that they 

continue to support trade between West Africa and European countries. The expiration of AGOA 

presents challenges for West African economies, highlighting the need for strategic policy 

responses to ensure sustainable export growth and economic development in the post-AGOA era. 

 

AGOA: US–ECOWAS TRADE RELATION 

AGOA is a nonreciprocal preference programs that make available duty-free access to the US 

markets for eligible exports from qualifying SSA countries. Since its inception in 2000, AGOAhas 

been at the core of US economic policy and commercial engagement with Africa and it is 

considered the cornerstone of America’s economic engagement with sub-Saharan Africa over the 

decades (Lighthizer 2020). To be eligible for AGOA, countries must also be eligible for the 

Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). All ECOWAS member states are AGOA-eligible 

countries except Guinea, Mali, and Niger which lost their eligibility or are ineligible. The basic 



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eligibility criteria include (a) market-based economy where the country must have established or 

be making progress toward establishing a market-based economy; (b) rule of law where the 

country must have established or be making progress toward establishing the rule of law; (c) 

political pluralism where the countries must have established or are making progress toward 

establishing political pluralism. Others include (d), a due process where the countries must have 

established or are making progress toward establishing the right to due process; (e) trade barriers 

where the countries must have eliminated trade barriers and economic policies that reduce poverty; 

(f) corruption where the countries must have systems to combat corruption; (g) human rights where 

the countries must not engage in gross violations of internationally recognized human rights or 

provide support for acts of international terrorism; and (h) cooperation where the countries must 

cooperate in international efforts to eliminate human rights violations and terrorist activities. 

According to the ECOWAS Trade Information System (ECOTIS) (2024), under AGOA, SSA 

exports to the US comprise oil, apparel, and various other products. In 2022, the US witnessed a 

3.3% decline in exports to ECOWAS, totalling $6.7 billion – reflecting a 20% decrease from 2012 

and a drop from the figures recorded in 2021. Equally, US imports from ECOWAS in 2022 

amounted to $9.4 billion, marking a notable 38.8% increase from 2021 but a substantial 55% 

decrease from 2012. ECOWAS import-export data reveals key export products, including cocoa, 

cocoa food preparations, precious stones, cotton, edible fruit, rubber, plastics, wood and wood 

products, fish, and shellfish. Notably, Europe constitutes around 28% of ECOWAS exports, with 

the European Union contributing 23%. With the expiration of AGOA and new reciprocity in 

tariffs, the export dynamics to the US market might change drastically.  

Asmah and Taiwo (2016) argue that the primary drivers of export growth under AGOA are 

predominantly centred on oil and gas, with minimal contribution from agricultural products. The 

influence of AGOA on African agriculture is notably constrained, despite agriculture being the 

sector with the highest potential for poverty reduction and job creation in Africa. One key factor 

of the constraints for ECOWAS member states is the subsidization of agriculture by the US 

government for its farmers, which has effectively nullified any competitive edge held by Africa's 

agricultural sector within AGOA (Asmah & Taiwo 2016). This subsidy system makes American 

agricultural exports more affordable than locally produced items in AGOA beneficiary countries 

and undermines the potential growth of smallholder farming in West Africa. Charles, et al (2003), 

argued that AGOA consistently fosters regional supply chains irrespective of pre-existing quota 

practices, particularly in products like textiles and apparel. Pigman (2016) Submitted that African 

exports under AGOA have not reached their quota limits. The implication is that because AGOA 

failed to eliminate pre-existing quotas as observed by Asmah and Taiwo (2016), it does not pose 

a significant challenge to West African exports. Thus, there is room for eligible West African 

exporters to explore opportunities under the agreement. To qualify for AGOA's textile and apparel 

benefits, beneficiary countries must establish a robust visa system to prevent unlawful 

transshipments and the use of counterfeit documents, coupled with effective enforcement and 

verification procedures.  

 

 



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ECOWAS EXPORTS SUCCESSES UNDER AGOA 

The AGOA framework has catalyzed ECOWAS export services and diversification in different 

respects. These include contributing to increasing export diversity in West Africa, enabling job 

creation and economic growth, and enhancing exponential market access for newcomers and 

existing exporters to the US market, among others. 

AGOA increased export diversity in West Africa: AGOA has played a crucial role in 

diversifying West African exports. Its impact on West African exports lies predominantly in its 

success in diversifying a historically commodity-dependent export landscape. From the customs 

union perspective, AGOA’s preferential treatment has incentivized West African nations to 

diversify their export portfolios beyond traditional commodities which are subject to global price 

volatility. Traditionally tied to the fortunes of oil and mineral exports, West African states found 

themselves susceptible to the volatilities of global commodity markets (Jacob et al 2020; Seyoum 

& Abraham 2022; Aslanidis et al 2020). AGOA emerged as a transformative catalyst, steering 

these countries toward non-traditional sectors, thereby fostering a more resilient and diversified 

export portfolio. The reliance on the exportation of commodities, primarily oil and minerals posed 

significant challenges, as fluctuations in global commodity prices often translated to unpredictable 

economic outcomes for these nations. AGOA, recognizing the need for economic resilience, 

strategically incentivized West African countries to explore and expand their export base beyond 

traditional commodities.  

One of the notable shifts facilitated by AGOA is the substantial growth of non-traditional sectors, 

such as textiles, apparel, and agricultural products. From the world system theory perspective, the 

growth of sectors like textiles and apparel under AGOA has enabled West African countries to 

move beyond the simple export of raw materials, fostering economic development and challenging 

traditional periphery roles. This shift contributes to a more balanced global economic system by 

enabling periphery nations to engage in more complex economic activities.  

Furthermore, the diversification has not only mitigated the risks associated with overreliance on a 

few key exports but has also unleashed new economic opportunities. West African states, once 

constrained by the cyclical nature of commodity markets, have now successfully navigated 

towards industries with more stable demand patterns. The textile and apparel sector, in particular, 

has experienced significant expansion, driven by preferential trade terms and incentives under 

AGOA. Countries in the region have been able to capitalize on the access to the US market, 

fostering the growth of local industries and creating employment opportunities. Additionally, the 

agricultural sector has witnessed increased attention. West African nations are leveraging AGOA 

to enhance their export capacities in crops and processed agricultural goods. AGOA's 

encouragement of diversification aligns with broader sustainable developmental goals, promoting 

sustainable economic growth and reducing vulnerability to external shocks (Luke 2023). The 

legacy of AGOA, therefore, extends beyond preferential trade agreements, contributing 

significantly to reshaping West Africa's economic landscape. 

Job creation and economic growth: AGOA's impact on West African economies extends beyond 

trade preferences, as it stands as a catalyst for substantial job creation (Tadesse, 2024; Luke 2023). 



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One of the key mechanisms through which AGOA has promoted job creation is by encouraging 

the establishment and growth of industries, with a notable focus on the garment and textile sectors 

(Tadesse, 2024). From the perspective of customs union theory, AGOA's preferential trade terms 

have effectively reduced trade barriers between the U.S. and eligible African countries, fostering 

trade creation. This environment has enabled West African nations to develop industries that are 

competitive in the U.S. market, thereby enhancing their job creation. However, the non-reciprocal 

nature of AGOA means that while African countries benefit from reduced tariffs, they are not 

required to lower their tariffs for U.S. goods, distinguishing them from traditional customs unions. 

Nevertheless, this expansion has translated into a surge in employment opportunities, from skilled 

labour in manufacturing facilities to ancillary roles in supply chains and distribution networks. The 

garment and textile sectors, in particular, have become vibrant hubs of economic activity, serving 

as significant contributors to job markets in West Africa. The creation of employment 

opportunities in these industries not only addresses immediate economic needs but also contributes 

to skill development and capacity building, thereby fostering a more sustainable and diversified 

labour force (Tadesse, 2024; Luke 2023).  

Furthermore, the sustainable economic development fostered by AGOA-driven job creation goes 

beyond the immediate gains. The establishment of industries, coupled with the development of a 

skilled workforce, sets the stage for long-term economic growth and competitiveness (Luke 2023). 

The infusion of vitality into these sectors not only aligns with the goals of poverty reduction but 

also positions West African states as dynamic players in the global economic arena. In essence, 

AGOA's role in enhancing job creation and economic growth in West Africa transcends simple 

trade concessions (Tadesse, 2024). It serves as a transformative force, breathing life into industries, 

uplifting communities through employment opportunities, and laying the foundation for sustained 

economic prosperity.  

In other words, AGOA's role in enhancing job creation and economic growth in West Africa 

exemplifies the practical applications of customs union and world-systems theories. The act's 

preferential trade provisions have stimulated relevant industrial development and employment, 

contributing to the economic advancement within the global system. 

Enhanced exponential market access for newcomers and existing exporters to the US 

market: AGOA provides West African countries with preferential access to the US market 

andpromotes an environment conducive to trade and investmentleading to a rise in exports, 

creating mutually beneficial relationships between West African producers and American 

consumers (Seyoum& Abraham 2022; Aslanidis et al 2020). At the heart of AGOA's impact is the 

preferential access it affords ECOWAS members to the vast US consumer base. By reducing trade 

barriers and providing duty-free or reduced-tariff entry for eligible products, AGOA has 

effectively lowered the cost of exporting goods from West Africa to the United States. This 

preferential treatment has both made West African products more competitive and also acted as a 

powerful incentive for producers in the region to explore and exploit the opportunities presented 

by the US market.  

The consequence of the increased market access has been a tangible rise in exports from West 

Africa to the United States (ECOTIS 2024). Industries such as textiles, apparel, and agricultural 



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products have experienced an increase in demand, leading to a steady flow of West African goods 

entering the US market. Kennedy, Larres and Rockwell (2023) argue that AGOA's facilitation of 

increased market access has cultivated mutually beneficial relationships between West African 

producers and American consumers. Producers in West Africa gain access to a vast consumer base, 

providing them with a stable and lucrative market share for their goods. Simultaneously, American 

consumers benefit from a diversified range of products, often showcasing the unique cultural and 

artisanal offerings from West Africa.  

From a customs union perspective, AGOA's preferential access can be likened to the benefits 

observed in regional trade agreements, where reduced tariffs among member countries promote 

trade creation. By lowering trade barriers, AGOA has made West African products more 

competitive in the U.S. market, encouraging producers to explore and capitalize on these 

opportunities. Applying world-systems theory, AGOA can be seen as a mechanism that integrates 

peripheral economies, such as those in West Africa, into the global trade system dominated by 

core countries like the United States. This integration facilitates the flow of goods from West 

Africa to the U.S., potentially leading to economic growth and development in the exporting 

countries. However, it's essential to consider the dynamics of such relationships to ensure they 

promote equitable and sustainable development. Therefore, AGOA's preferential trade terms have 

expanded market access for West African exporters, leading to increased exports and strengthened 

economic ties with the United States. Analyzing this through the lenses of customs union theory 

and world-systems theory provides a deeper understanding of the economic and systemic 

implications of such trade agreements. 

CHALLENGES FACED BY ECOWAS EXPORTS UNDER AGOA 

Despite the positive strides made in export diversification facilitated by AGOA, ECOWAS 

member-countries continually find themselves grappling with persistent challenges including the 

risk of dependency on a limited range of products and the challenge of infrastructure and capacity 

constraints. 

The challenge of dependency on a few products: AGOA has reinforced existing dependencies 

on a narrow range of exports, perpetuating structural inequalities in the global economic system. 

Its structure has maintained West African countries in a peripheral role, primarily supplying raw 

materials and low-value-added goods to core economies like the United States. This dynamic 

perpetuates a cycle where West African economies remain dependent on exporting a limited array 

of commodities, making them vulnerable to global market fluctuations and inhibiting sustainable 

development. While AGOA has opened doors to new markets and industries, the lingering reliance 

on a handful of key exports remains a vulnerability that necessitates strategic interventions for 

sustainable economic growth (Páez et al. 2010).The challenge arises from the historical economic 

structures of these nations, which were often built around the extraction and exportation of specific 

commodities, such as oil, minerals, or agricultural products. While AGOA has successfully 

encouraged the exploration of non-traditional sectors, the allure of continued revenue streams from 

these established commodities poses a threat to the broader economic resilience of West African 

economies. The challenge of dependency on a few products is multifaceted. Economic shocks, 

such as fluctuations in global commodity prices, can have a disproportionate impact on nations 



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reliant on specific exports (Qian et al. 2023; Gerval& Hansen 2022). Moreover, overreliance on a 

limited range of products can hinder the development of a more dynamic and robust economy, 

limiting the ability to adapt to changing market conditions and to capitalize on emerging 

opportunities. To address this challenge, concerted efforts are required to further broaden the 

export base of West African nations to new frontiers. This involves diversifying both the types of 

products exported through the AGOA framework and also expanding into value-added processes 

within existing sectors.  

The challenge of infrastructure and capacity constraints: These are manifestations of the 

peripheral status of West African countries within the global economic system, where 

underdeveloped infrastructure perpetuates dependency and limits upward mobility. Without such 

infrastructure, the potential benefits of trade agreements like AGOA are substantially diminished. 

Infrastructure and capacity limitations, including inadequate transportation networks and limited 

production capabilities, pose challenges to fully harnessing the benefits of AGOA (Simuziya 2023; 

Alves& Alden 2024).  The challenge of infrastructure and capacity constraints emerges as a critical 

impediment to fully realizing the benefits of AGOA, particularly in West Africa. Despite the 

preferential trade terms and market access opportunities, inadequate transportation networks and 

limited production capabilities present substantial hurdles that hinder the region's ability to harness 

the full potential of this transformative trade agreement. The insufficient state of transportation 

infrastructure stands out as a major bottleneck. Inefficient and underdeveloped road, rail, and port 

systems impede the smooth flow of goods, resulting in delays, increased costs, and overall logistic 

challenges. This not only affects the competitiveness of West African exports but also diminishes 

the attractiveness of the region as a reliable trade partner. Addressing these infrastructure gaps is 

imperative to facilitate the continuous movement of goods and enhance the efficiency of the 

AGOA-enabled supply chain.  

 

PROSPECTS OF ECOWAS EXPORTS WITHOUT AGOA 

With AGOA set to expire, concerns arise regarding the future of ECOWAS exports. The 

termination of the nonreciprocal framework could lead to a decline in exports, particularly in 

sectors like apparel, agriculture, and automotive industries, thereby impacting employment and 

economic stability within these nations. This impending scenario necessitates strategic planning 

and the exploration of alternative trade agreements to sustain and enhance the export momentum 

of ECOWAS countries in a post-AGOA landscape. However, it could further facilitate economic 

transformation based on the shift towards transactionalism. AGOA, as a catalyst for economic 

transformation, has set the stage for a paradigm shift in the region's economic landscape. Its 

expiration provides an enabling environment for the independence of ECOWAS exports to 

embrace transactionalism in international trade. The strength of the deal in this transaction is raw 

materials. According to the world system approach, this is both an advantage and a disadvantage. 

Its advantage lies in the bargaining power it affords the peripheral countries, and its disadvantage 

is the lack of purchasing power bedevilling developing countries, which also weakens the 

bargaining power. However, the foundation laid by AGOA is not merely confined to short-term 

gains; it serves as a cornerstone for sustained growth, increased competitiveness, and a 



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comprehensive overhaul of traditional economic structures (Tadesse, 2024; Luke 2023). The exit 

of AGOA could steer the nations away from reliance on a narrow range of commodities by 

initiating a broader exploration of industries, including textiles, apparel, agricultural products and 

new markets. The prospect of this diversification mitigates future economic risks associated with 

the exit of the framework and paves the way for a more resilient and adaptive economic ecosystem.  

Further, economic transformation is inseparable from human capital development. The analysis of 

AGOA’s possible termination reveals that its impact extends to the workforce, emphasizing the 

importance of skilled labour and capacity building (Luke 2023). By investing in education, 

training, and skills development, West African countries can create a workforce equipped to drive 

innovation, productivity, and sustained economic growth to further explore preferential market 

access with quality products with fewer rejections. The ultimate goal of economic transformation 

is to position West Africa as a globally competitive player. Trading under a transactional 

framework offers a unique opportunity for these nations to establish themselves in international 

markets. Continued efforts to enhance competitiveness through quality standards, efficiency 

improvements, and adherence to sustainable practices contribute to a positive feedback loop, 

attracting more trade partners and solidifying West Africa's standing in the global economy. 

However, there is a mixed prospect for deepening regional integration. The prospect of deepening 

regional integration within West Africa emerges as a strategic avenue to amplify the urgency of 

deepening regional integration and support for the Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement 

(AfCFTA) with the expiration of AGOA which creates trade diversion. However, AGOA would 

encourage a more collaborative environment that maximizes the benefits of this transformative 

approach to sustainable development. Through concerted efforts and shared goals with AGOA, 

ECOWAS could overcome challenges, pool resources, and create a more attractive investment 

landscape that propels the region towards sustained economic growth (Washington, 2024). 

Regional integration facilitates the smooth movement of goods, services, and capital across 

borders, contributing to enhanced market access. This is currently highly limited in the regions as 

goods move more freely to the US market under AGOA than as they move from Nigeria in West 

Africa to Uganda in East Africa. Nonetheless, through aligning trade policies and harmonizing 

regulations, ECOWAS can create a more efficient and integrated market and benefit maximally 

from intra-African trade and the permeation of new markets. This will benefit local businesses and 

make the region more appealing to other international investors looking for simplified and coherent 

trade environments.  

Collaborative efforts in regional integration can prioritize the development of cross-border 

infrastructure (Simuziya 2023; Alves & Alden 2024). Shared investments in transportation 

networks, energy grids, and communication systems can significantly improve connectivity within 

the region. This, in turn, reduces the costs of doing business and enhances the overall 

competitiveness of ECOWAS on the global stage. Regional integration allows West African 

countries to pool their resources and expertise for common economic goals to take advantage of 

the AGOA’s preferential market access. Whether it's investing in research and development, 

promoting innovation, or addressing shared challenges, collaborative efforts amplify the impact of 

individual initiatives. A united approach enhances the effectiveness of policies, making it easier to 



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implement reforms and navigate the complexities of global trade. West African nations can offer 

a unified market that attracts foreign direct investment to the region by aligning legal and 

institutional frameworks regarding ECOWAS Vision 2050 with a strong competitive framework. 

Thus, the expiration of the nonreciprocal framework encourages an environment conducive to 

entrepreneurship and innovation.  

In addition, regional integration creates the enabling environment for West African countries to 

collectively address challenges that transcend national borders. Whether it's tackling infrastructure 

deficiencies, harmonizing customs procedures, or jointly promoting sustainable practices, 

collaborative efforts provide a platform for effective problem-solving. This united front enhances 

the region's resilience in the face of global economic fluctuations and challenges. The prospect of 

deepening regional integration among West African countries emerges as a strategic imperative to 

maximize the impact of AGOA. 

 

CONCLUSION 

The African Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA), as part of a broader US initiative, aimed to 

encourage sub-Saharan African eligible exports with tariff-free access to the US markets. 

However, it is now expiring. The EU has similar frameworks. We hope they would not be gone 

likewise following the dramatic global geopolitical changes. This was a form of foreign assistance 

operated outside the traditional scope of, for example, the United States Agency for International 

Development (USAID), etc. and was not explicitly tied to donor-national interests, instead 

prioritizing the local development needs of recipient countries. AGOA has facilitated trade 

between the US and eligible African countries, providing preferential access to the US market for 

certain goods. However, the expiration of the framework signals an era for innovation to compete 

effectively in the new transnationalism technique and explore new markets for export services of 

local production and resources. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



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